Within the BELMOD project, several activities are carried out to develop a microsimulation tool and an inventory of policy proposals to reduce non-take-up. The results of this are written down in reports and notes, which can be found here. In addition, the BELMOD model has already been used for some ex ante policy evaluations on Belgian social protection that fall outside the scope of the BELMOD project.

The timing of the activities can be found on the timeline.

Modernising the microsimulation tool

In the course of 2021, the following documents will come online:

• documentation notes;
• validation notes;
• Descriptive report to promote the tool.

Inventory of policy proposals to reduce non-take up

Exploratory report on the possibilities of simplification and harmonisation of means of subsistence testing in Belgium

This report examines the possibilities of simplifying and harmonising the means tests for the following social benefits and allowances:

• the increased allowance;
• the income replacement allowance;
• the subsistence allowance;
• the income guarantee for the elderly;
• the heating allowance.

When comparing the different means tests, we note that the income concepts that are used often deviate from the broad income concept needed to map out a family's full financial capacity. This is certainly the case for the means tests that are based on taxable income. Other means tests therefore collect additional information through an application form or social survey so that they can use a broader income concept. The many observed differences between means tests show that there is certainly room for simplification and harmonisation. The report ends with a number of fundamental questions about the scope and direction of this simplification and harmonisation.

Exploratory report on the possibilities of automatic allocation in Belgium

This report explores a number of ways to automate means testing. First, the bottlenecks of fully automating the income replacement allowance and the heating allowance are examined. At first sight, full automation of the means test seems an easily achievable option as it is based on the taxable income of two years ago, which can easily be requested from the FPS Finance. However, the report lists a number of obstacles that stand in the way of a fully automatic means test. Next, the possibilities of (further) automatic identification of potential beneficiaries of the integration allowance, the income guarantee for the elderly and the increased allowance are explored. For these social rights, a complete automatic allocation seems difficult to achieve as it takes into account means of existence that are not registered centrally, such as (income from) movable assets. Automatic identification, whereby the target group is demarcated on the basis of the information that is administratively available and is encouraged to submit an application, can offer a solution to this. The report ends with a list of preconditions that must be met for automation to actually contribute to an improved allocation of social rights.

Report with proposal of reformed income concept

In this report, one or more reformed income concepts will be proposed. It will also describe the effects of using these concepts on the population of beneficiaries of certain social benefits. This report is expected by the end of 2021.

Report on how the simulation tool can be used as a monitoring tool for NTU

This report will be a preparatory study that investigates the ways in which the simulation model can be further developed into a tool to continuously monitor the non-take-up of social rights, following the example of the 'Income-related benefits: estimates of take-up' statistics in the UK. This report is expected in mid-2022.

Inventory of policy proposals

The inventory to be prepared by mid-2022 will present a set of policy proposals based on the above reports, ranging from a fundamental reform of the current means test to less far-reaching proposals aimed at automating existing means tests. The effects of the proposed measures, estimated by use of the new microsimulation model, will also be described.

Other uses

In addition to examining measures that promote the take-up of social rights, the new simulation model can also be used for broader ex ante policy evaluations concerning Belgian social protection. Thus, the following analyses have already been carried out with the BELMOD model:

• an estimate of the budgetary cost of raising the social security benefits to the European poverty risk limit, commissioned by the Court of Audit;
• An estimate of the budgetary cost of reducing the price of love and the price of labour for those entitled to an integration allowance, commissioned by the policy cell of the Minister of Pensions and Social Integration;
• an estimate of the extent of the non-take-up of the subsistence allowance for persons in primary incapacity for work, by order of the PPS Social Integration.

The Policy Statement of the Minister of Social Affairs of 2 November 2020 mentions the possibility of developing an 'online' calculation tool that allows citizens to check the impact of labour market transitions on their net disposable income. In this way, those who rely on a replacement income can gain more certainty about how much work will pay. The BELMOD simulation tool can serve as a basis for such a calculation instrument.